Peninsula Real Estate Market Report: May 2026

By Jessica Heredia | Realtor, Silicon Valley & Bay Area

If you've been waiting for the market to slow down before making a move, May 2026 has a message for you: it's not slowing down.

Across the Peninsula, inventory is being absorbed faster than it's being listed, homes are still selling over asking price, and median prices in most cities climbed again from April to May. The story isn't the same in every zip code though — and the differences matter a lot depending on where you're looking and what you're planning to do.

Here's what the numbers actually say, city by city.

Atherton — The Luxury Market Is on Fire

Median Sale Price: $11,075,000 | +28% year over year

Atherton had the most dramatic May of any market on this list. Twelve homes sold — up 71% from the same month last year — while the number of new listings actually dropped 29%. That supply-demand gap pushed the median sale price up 28% year over year to $11,075,000, and up 15% from April alone.

The top quartile tells the real story: the three highest-priced sales had a median of $27,750,000. That's not a typo.

The one number that looks like a yellow flag — days on market doubled year over year, from 6 to 12 — is less alarming in context. At 12 days, Atherton is still moving faster than most markets in the country, and sellers are still collecting an average of 102% of asking price. Months of inventory sits at just 1.0, down 64% from a year ago.

What this means if you're a buyer: Atherton is as competitive as it's been in years. With only 10 homes listed in May and 12 sold, the math isn't in your favor if you're waiting for options to open up. Serious buyers need to be ready before the right house appears — not after.

What this means if you're a seller: Pricing discipline still matters. The 102% sale-to-list ratio means well-priced homes are getting competed on. Overpriced listings are sitting — the third quartile had a median DOM of 75 days, which is the outlier that proves the rule.

Menlo Park — Steady, Competitive, and Tightening

Median Sale Price: $3,951,500 | +16% year over year

Menlo Park is operating like a textbook seller's market. Thirty homes sold in May, inventory fell 43% year over year, and sellers received an average of 105% of list price — up from 101% a year ago. Months of inventory dropped to 1.0, matching Atherton.

The median sale price of $3,951,500 is up 16% from May 2025 and up 4% from April 2026. The price-per-square-foot held essentially flat year over year at $1,700 — which actually signals that the price gains are being driven by demand, not by a shift toward larger homes transacting.

The bottom quartile averaged 15 days on market at a $2,250,000 median — a useful data point for buyers who assume entry-level Menlo Park means a slower, less competitive process. It doesn't.

What this means if you're a buyer: The 43% drop in listings year over year is the number to pay attention to. Fewer homes are coming to market, but more buyers are competing for them. The offer-over-asking trend isn't softening — it's strengthening. Strategy matters more here than patience.

What this means if you're a seller: You're in a strong position, but presentation and pricing still separate the 105% outcomes from the ones that linger. The top quartile averaged $6,107,500 at 12 days. If your home is well-prepared and correctly priced, May's data says the demand is there.

Palo Alto — The Most Consistent Market on the Peninsula

Median Sale Price: $4,200,000 | +5% year over year

Palo Alto posted the highest sales volume of any city in this report — 55 homes sold in May, up 25% from a year ago — and did it with the tightest days-on-market of the group at just 8 days. That number hasn't moved year over year. It barely moves month over month.

Sellers received 108% of asking price, the highest of any city in this report. Months of inventory sits at 0.9 — less than one month. Price per square foot jumped 15% year over year to $2,305.

What's notable about Palo Alto's quartile breakdown is how compressed the days-on-market is across price points. The top, second, and third quartiles all came in at 8 days, regardless of whether the median sale price was $7,664,000 or $3,555,000. Only the bottom quartile stretched to 13 days. This is a market that moves uniformly fast.

What this means if you're a buyer: Palo Alto doesn't give you time to think. With under one month of inventory and 8-day medians across nearly every price tier, hesitation is expensive. Pre-approval, agent relationship, and offer strategy need to be locked in before you tour — not after.

What this means if you're a seller: The 108% sale-to-list ratio and sub-one-month inventory make this one of the strongest seller environments in the Bay Area right now. If you've been sitting on the fence, May's data suggests the conditions are about as favorable as they get.

Portola Valley — Read This One Carefully Before Drawing Conclusions

Median Sale Price: $3,262,000 | -50% year over year

Stop. Before that -50% number sends you in the wrong direction, here's the context: Portola Valley only had 5 homes sell in May. That's it. Five transactions. In a market this thin, a single high-priced sale in one month versus a lower-priced sale in the comparison month can swing the median by millions.

May 2025's median of $6,500,000 was almost certainly pulled up by one or two outlier transactions. May 2026's $3,262,000 reflects a completely different mix — not a collapse in values.

The more reliable signal: price per square foot fell just 3% year over year. That's essentially flat. And sellers still received 100% of asking price, which in a low-volume luxury market means homes are being priced and transacting at full value — just not getting bid into a frenzy.

Months of inventory at 3.0 is the highest of any market in this report, and days on market rose to 18. Portola Valley has always moved more slowly than its neighbors by nature — it's a smaller, more private, deliberately quiet market. That hasn't changed.

What this means if you're a buyer: This is one of the few places on the Peninsula where you have actual negotiating room and time to think. The 100% sale-to-list ratio means sellers aren't desperate, but they're not extracting premiums either. If Portola Valley fits your lifestyle, the current environment is as buyer-friendly as this market gets.

What this means if you're a seller: Pricing precision is everything in a 5-transaction-per-month market. One overpriced listing skews your own data. The second quartile home this May sat for 94 days — almost certainly a pricing story, not a demand story.

Redwood City — The Entry Point That's Stopped Feeling Like One

Median Sale Price: $2,400,000 | +3% year over year

Redwood City is the most accessible market in this report by price — and it's showing some of the strongest competitive dynamics of the group. Sellers received 107% of asking price in May, up from 102% a year ago. That 5-point jump in sale-to-list ratio is the biggest improvement year over year of any city here.

Forty-one homes sold in May, up 11% from last year, and the median sale price climbed 11% from April to May — from $2,170,000 to $2,400,000. Months of inventory dropped 46% year over year to just 1.3.

The one datapoint worth flagging: sales volume dropped 35% from April (63 sales) to May (41 sales). That's a notable single-month pullback. It likely reflects the natural variability of a mid-sized market rather than a trend reversal — particularly when prices rose 11% in the same period — but it's worth watching in the June report.

Price per square foot at $1,298 is up 2% year over year, with the bottom quartile averaging $1,088/sq.ft. at a $1,574,500 median. That bottom quartile also has the longest DOM at 23 days — the only segment in Redwood City where buyers have any breathing room.

What this means if you're a buyer: Redwood City is where buyers who've been priced out of Palo Alto or Menlo Park tend to land — and they're landing hard. The 107% sale-to-list ratio means competition is real at every price point. The bottom quartile is your best window for negotiation, but even there, 23 days isn't much runway.

What this means if you're a seller: Your home is worth more than it was a year ago, and buyers are paying over asking to get it. The 46% inventory drop year over year means you're not competing with as many other sellers as you were in 2025.

The Big Picture: What May 2026 Is Telling Us

Pull back from the individual cities and a clear pattern emerges across the Peninsula:

Inventory is compressed everywhere. Four of five markets sit at 1.3 months of supply or less — Palo Alto is under one month. The national benchmark for a balanced market is 4 to 6 months. We are nowhere near balanced.

Homes are selling over asking across the board. Every city in this report posted a sale-to-list ratio above 100%, ranging from Portola Valley's flat 100% to Palo Alto's 108%.

Prices are up year over year in four of five markets. The Portola Valley decline is a sample-size story, not a value story.

The buyers who win in this environment aren't the ones who move fastest. They're the ones who understand what they're walking into before they start — pre-approved, strategically advised, and clear on which trade-offs they're willing to make.

Thinking About Buying or Selling on the Peninsula?

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